A.J. Reed and Luis Rengifo: Deep League Waiver Wire

Welcome to the first post-all star break edition of the deep league waiver wire! I hope you’re as enthused as I to follow the remaining two and a half months of baseball…perhaps, with these two hitters added to your roster.

A.J. Reed | 1B CHW | CBS 2% Owned

He’s still around?! I know, I know, it seems like forever ago that he was a top prospect in the Astros system. But for some reason, 150 MLB plate appearances was enough to give him away. He has always hit in the minors, combining excellent power with double digit walk rates at every minor league stop except one. Oddly, his worst offensive performance came during his fourth tour of duty at Triple-A this year, as his strikeout rate spiked to a minor league career worst, while his BABIP slipped to a new low. That’s obviously a recipe for disappointing results.

But he’s only 26, clearly still has power and is willing to take a walk. It’s a profile that was enough for the White Sox to swoop in and take a shot, as at the very least, he has to be better than Yonder Alonso, right? Chicago is a great landing spot for Reed, too, as last year its home park inflated left-handed homers by 12%. On the other hand, Minute Maid Park in Houston inflated dingers by just 2%. So this is clearly a good move from a home park perspective.

Since the White Sox aren’t going anywhere and have no one else that needs to be tried at DH, Reed should have some rope to try to establish himself for the first time. In an OBP league, he’s an obvious buy. He’s definitely a bit less so in batting average leagues, but given the potential for a bunch of homers and perhaps a spot in the middle of the order, he’s absolutely worth speculating on.

Luis Rengifo | 2B/SS LAA | 3% Owned

With Zack Cozart out for the season and Tommy La Stella out for a while, the Angels had an opening at either second or third base, given David Fletcher’s flexibility. The Angels decided to dip into their farm system and hand Rengifo a job, giving him most of his reps at second base. Rengifo was ranked the seventh best prospect in the Angels system heading into the season, with no standout skills, but competence across the board.

His minor league results are littered with strong walk rates, solid strikeout rates, speed, and limited home run power. But the latter changed this year during his time at Triple-A, as his HR/FB rate more than tripled to the high teens (the first time it exceeded 8.9% at any stop), and his ISO finished just below .200. Was the 22-year-old enjoying a power surge suggesting a new level of skill or was this just a hot start over the small sample of 110 at-bats? Well, the power hasn’t exactly translated yet, as his ISO sits at just .116 and HR/FB rate stands at 7.3%.

Unfortunately, aside from the lack of power so far, he’s swiped just one base. It means that so far, he’s just been a guy you’re starting for playing time in your deep league, with the assumption that a starter is better than a reserve, even though he’s not contributing much in homers or steals. But his track record suggests the potential for better and since that small sample Triple-A power outburst did occur this year, perhaps it will reappear. For now, he’s worth playing in deep leagues, but be aware that an extended slump could open the door for the recently recalled Matt Thaiss.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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